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Poland's Presidential Election Sees PM Tusk's Populist Resisters Face Test in Polls

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The upcoming presidential election in Poland, scheduled for May 18, is a pivotal moment for the country's politics, with the outcome potentially ending the current stalemate between the left-wing liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and the national-conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki. The election is not just a contest between these two candidates, but also a test of the Prime Minister Donald Tusk's plans, which have been hindered by the country's president, Andrzej Duda. Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, is currently leading in opinion polls, ahead of 11 other candidates in the first round of voting.

    1. The NASK Disinformation Analysis Center has identified political ads on the Facebook platform that may be financed from abroad. The materials were displayed in Poland.
    1. We will not allow ourselves to be centralized by the EU, and Poland and Romania to be turned into administrative districts [of the EU].
    2. Together with Romania, when George Simion wins and when we win on May 18, we will build a Europe of Homelands, in which we will not allow the European Union to centralise and turn Poland and Romania into its provinces.
    1. Poles are not angry at Ukrainians for living separately or not speaking Polish. [But] in a country with highly limited access to public services, there is an irrational sense of injustice. There is a sense that Ukrainians do not work, but use healthcare. Which is nonsense, because most Ukrainians work and pay taxes.
    2. In public opinion polls and focus groups, among all voters, including voters of the new left, there has been a visible anti-Ukrainian trend, which has social and economic rather than cultural roots.
    3. The difference between liberal and populist parties should be that liberal parties treat human rights seriously.
    4. Research shows that when liberal and left-wing parties accommodate far-right issues, they do not win populist voters, but lose their own.
    1. Not only would it weaken Tusk's room for manoeuvre, but it would also strain his already fragile ruling coalition as its members would likely disagree on how to respond to an opposition president.
    2. A Nawrocki victory would substantially diminish the prime minister's domestic political capital.
Poland's Presidential Election Sees PM Tusk's Populist Resisters Face Test in Polls