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China's Economic Growth Slows Amid Key Communist Party Meeting

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China's economy experienced slower-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with official statistics showing a 4.7% increase from April to June. This is down from the 5.3% growth rate in the previous quarter and below the predicted 5.1% rate by economists. The property sector continued to decline, with new commercial building sales dropping 25% in the first half of 2024. President Xi Jinping announced that the Communist Party was planning "major" reforms, but no details were provided. The party's four-day meeting, known as the Third Plenum, is set to begin on Monday and will likely outline a strategy for self-sufficient economic growth. Business owners and investors are waiting to see if the party will announce any immediate measures to address the prolonged real estate downturn.

    1. Domestic effective demand remains insufficient and the foundation for sound economic recovery and growth still needs to be strengthened.
    1. While the case for reform is high, it's unlikely to be a particularly exciting affair.
    2. Instead, we expect a modest policy tweak that expands high-tech manufacturing and delivers a sprinkling of support to housing and households.
    3. Turning these [economic] trends around should be front and centre of this week's third plenum.
    1. This is a point in time where China needs to show its cards.